01 导读

感谢思维导图作者Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

02 听力|精读|翻译|词组

Asian economies 亚洲经济体

Power in reserves 外汇储备的能量

英文部分选自经济学人20210326期财经版块

Asia’s soaring trade inflows put currency intervention in the spotlight

亚洲贸易流入不断攀升，外汇干预成焦点

① It might seem cause for celebration. Taiwan was already a standout economic performer in a pandemic-plagued world, and its good run, fuelled by semiconductor sales, is continuing. Orders for its exports rose by an eye-watering 49% in the first two months of 2021 compared with a year earlier, according to data released on March 22nd. There is just one snag: export strength has become awkward for officials in Taipei, for it attracts unwanted attention. America’s Treasury has already placed Taiwan on its “monitoring list” for countries that manipulate their exchange rates and the boom only adds to the harsh glare.

这似乎看起来是值得庆祝的。在疫情蔓延的全球，台湾的经济表现已经非常出色，在其半导体销售的推动下，良好的经济表现不断持续。据3月22日发布的数据，2021年前两个月，台湾的出口订单同比增长了49%，令人难以置信。只是有一点麻烦的是:出口实力已经让台北的官员们感到尴尬，因为吸引了不必要的关注。美国财政部已经将台湾列入其汇率操纵国的“监测名单”，而台湾的经济繁荣只会使其更加引人注目。

② If it is any solace to Taiwan, it is far from alone in drawing such scrutiny. Across Asia foreign-exchange reserves—a good proxy for currency intervention—have jumped. Excluding China (where the data are trickier to interpret), reserves in the next ten largest Asian economies increased by about $410bn last year, the biggest annual jump on record, according to calculations by The Economist.

如果说有什么可以给台湾带来些许安慰，那就是他绝不是唯一一个受到这种监视的经济体。亚洲各国的外汇储备（外汇干预的一个很好的指标)都已大幅增加。根据《经济学人》的计算，除中国以外(中国的数据较难以解读)，排在中国之后的10大亚洲经济体去年的外汇储备总额增加了约4100亿美元，是有记录以来最大的年度增幅。

③ Some of the other countries are, like Taiwan, part of the Asian manufacturing complex which has benefited from resilient overseas demand for electronics and consumer goods amid covid-19 lockdowns. In Vietnam, for example, exports grew by 6.5% last year. With its currency, the dong, loosely pegged to the dollar, much of those trade receipts wound their way into official foreign-exchange reserves (the central bank issues dong to buy excess dollars from commercial banks at a quasi-fixed exchange rate).

像台湾一样的其他亚洲经济体，都是亚洲制造业综合体的一部分，都受益于在新冠肺炎封锁期间，海外对电子产品和消费品的强劲需求。比如越南，去年出口增长了6.5%。由于越南盾与美元松散地挂钩，大部分贸易收入都进入了官方外汇储备(央行发行越南盾，以准固定汇率从商业银行购买多余的美元)。

④ Other countries recorded big net currency inflows in tougher circumstances. In the Philippines and India exports slumped, but imports fell more sharply. Both countries swung from current-account deficits to large surpluses last year.

其他国家则在更严峻的环境中，出现了外汇净流入。在菲律宾和印度，尽管出口下滑，但进口下降幅度更大。因此两国去年都从经常账户赤字转为经常账户巨额盈余。

⑤ The controversial question is whether the build-up in reserves is, from a global perspective, bad. The case against reserves is that, since they stem from efforts to suppress currency appreciation, they represent a beggar-thy-neighbour trade policy: boosting your exports at the expense of others. Yet there is also a case for reserves. For small open countries, the goal may be to minimise disruptive exchange-rate swings, not to keep a currency cheap. And for developing countries, reserves are a liquidity backstop if foreign capital dries up, as it did for many last year.

极具争议的是，从全球的角度来看，外汇储备的增加是否会让情况变得更加糟糕。反对外汇储备的声音认为，由于（外汇储备）的目的是抑制本币升值，它们代表了以邻为壑的贸易政策：以牺牲他国的利益为代价促进本国的出口。然而2013 外汇储备，储备也是有其存在的必要性的。对于小型开放国家来说，他们进行（外汇储备）的目标是尽量减少针对本币汇率的破坏性波动，而不是故意保持本币便宜。而对发展中国家而言，如果外国资本枯竭，外汇储备就是维持流动性的最后一道防线，就像去年许多国家一样。

⑥ That distinction matters in Asia. It seems absurd to fault some of the poorer countries. During the “taper tantrum” of 2013, when emerging markets sold off over fears of American monetary tightening, India and Indonesia were among those seen as vulnerable because of their reliance on external financing. Bigger buffers should make them more stable. If they can wrestle the pandemic under control this year, it is likely that their imports will rebound and their current-account surpluses will diminish. The increase in their reserves would end up looking like a healthy aberration, not a malign trend.

对于亚洲各国来说，上述区分尤为重要。指责一些欠发达的国家似乎是荒谬的。2013年，新兴市场因担心美元收紧而抛售股票，在这场“减量暴动”期间，印度和印度尼西亚因其依赖外部融资的问题而被视为脆弱国家。那么（如果手上有一定的外汇储备）则会为其货币的稳定性保证一定的缓冲区。如果今年他们能够控制住疫情，他们的进口很可能会反弹，经常账户盈余从而也会减少。那么他们外汇储备的增加最终来看将会是一种健康的反常现象，而不是一种恶性（贬值本币）的趋势。

⑦ The gains in richer countries—especially China, South Korea and Taiwan—look more objectionable. They themselves seem to be aware of this. Most notable is China, which appears to have taken steps to conceal its good fortune. Its central bank’s foreign reserves have risen by $97bn since the start of 2020, making for a relatively modest increase of 3%. But there has been a marked jump in net foreign-currency assets in its banking system, which are up by $133bn, or 80%, in the first nine months of 2020 (see chart). One possibility is that the commercial lenders have acted as proxies for managing reserves. Currency traders in China say big state-owned banks have indeed been major buyers of dollars at moments of maximum yuan strength.

富裕的国家和地区，尤其是中国、韩国、台湾省（中国宝岛），取得的进展更更加有异议。它们自己似乎也意识到这一点。最引人注目的要数z国，它好像已经采取行动来掩盖其好运气。自2020年以来，其中央银行的外汇储备已经增长了970亿美元，相对小幅上涨了3%。但是，z国银行系统的净外汇资产已有显著提升，在2020年前9个月里（见图表），增长了1330亿美元，或者说80%。一种可能是商业银行充当了管理外汇储备的代理人。中国的外汇交易员称，在人民币走强势头强劲之时，大型国有银行的确是美元的主要买家。

⑧ The best defence for these three countries is that they have wanted to check the speed at which their currencies appreciate, particularly given the uncertainties of the pandemic. Even with their bigger reserves, the currencies of China, South Korea and Taiwan are all up by about 5% against the dollar since mid-2020. They will face more upward pressure if the export boom continues. The pandemic promises to leave a key oddity of the world economy intact: treasure chests of reserves in Asia that are accumulated, held and spent in order to insulate economies from currency markets that policymakers don’t trust.

这三个地区最好的防护措施就是它们希望能控制其货币升值的速度，尤其考虑到疫情的不确定性。自2020年年中以来，即便都拥有更多的外汇储备，中国、韩国、中国台湾省对美元的汇率都上涨了5%左右。如果出口繁荣继续盛行，它们将面临更多的上行压力。本次疫情有望令世界经济的一个关键怪点保持不变：亚洲积累、持有和消费的外汇储备宝库是为了使经济体免受政策制定者不信任的货币市场的影响。

翻译组：

Jerry，男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

Summer2013 外汇储备，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐 /健康

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝